Probabilistic risk analysis, Monte Carlo simulations, and Federal Communications Commission decision-making

In recent years, probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) – which includes techniques like Monte Carlo simulations – has become a recurrent theme in various public and private spectrum policy initiatives involving the Federal Communications Commission and the National Telecommunications and Information Administration. PRA techniques promise more informed decision making in complex areas like inter-service radio interference assessments.

This article discusses what PRA is, how Monte Carlo simulations work and fit within the PRA, statistical concepts relevant to how PRA is used in practice, and how PRA could alter radio policy decision making.

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