Interstellar Insights - September 2024

Space weather startup Perceptive Space raises USD2.8 million.

Canadian startup Perceptive Space is developing new artificial intelligence (AI)-based software to forecast space weather more precisely. The company raised USD2.8 million in a pre-seed funding round on August 6, 2024 as they emerged from stealth mode.

Perceptive Space pledges “space weather predictions that are more accurate and have better lead times than what NOAA and other government agencies provide today,” Padmashri Suresh, Perceptive Space’s Founder and Chief Executive Officer, told SpaceNews. “We are using AI to extract more signal from the same data.”

Perceptive Space models absorb data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which produces space weather forecasts and alerts, as well as from NASA and private partners.

Suresh told Payload that “the platform outperformed traditional models by more than ten times in speed and accuracy to reduce space weather’s impacts."

Avoiding surprise solar and geomagnetic storms could potentially prevent multimillion-dollar losses in the industry, such as when SpaceX lost 49 satellites in a 2022 geometric storm.

Perceptive Space’s first product will launch in 2025.

“As startups continue to penetrate the commercial space market, we predict a rise in the use of AI to help combat existing issues facing a multitude of industries,” noted Danny Tobey, Chair of DLA Piper’s AI and Data Analytics practice. “While AI has countless benefits, the integration of AI in the space industry also introduces the need for responsible and ethical space exploration and use. We will continue to monitor the rise of AI in commercial space and its many uses, as well as potential risks to companies.”

On the horizon: US government plans update of space technology export controls.

The US Department of State and US Department of Commerce plan to update the space technology on export lists of controlled products to reflect rapid changes in the industry. The last comprehensive revision to the control lists was in the early 2010s.

“It’s been over a decade since we had the last significant amount of export control review on space technology,” said Chirag Parikh, Executive Secretary of the National Space Council, at the 39th Space Symposium in April 2024. “I think the technology has evolved. I think the global capabilities of space have evolved.”

Parikh said the two departments will issue an advance notice of proposed rulemaking (ANPRM). This will look at what technologies are currently controlled on the US Munitions List under the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) that could be transferred to the Commerce Control List under the less restrictive Export Administration Regulations (EAR). When the ANPRM is published, companies will be encouraged to provide responses about what technology should be examined for potential change in applicable export controls.

Many industry officials believe a review of space technology under ITAR is necessary.

Parikh said he is cognizant that updated export controls are needed to keep US companies competitive. “We need to make sure that we have a fair and level playing field so we have competition globally and we can also enable partnerships along the way as well,” he said.

“The US government has a keen eye on the growth of the space economy and advancements in space technology, which have significant national security implications, particularly as more countries join the space race. These trends, combined with the volume and velocity of recent changes to export control regulations, has created a complex regulatory environment for commercial space companies. We are working to guide companies through the changing regulatory landscape to ensure they are competitively positioned for growth,” remarked Christian Ford, Chair of DLA Piper’s Space Exploration and Innovation practice.

Cybersecurity a top priority for military satellites as threats loom.

Cyberattacks are expected to be the most frequent weapon used to disrupt US space capabilities as more countries and companies enter the space market. To reduce risk, preparation is key. US military satellites, for instance, are subjected to rigorous threat detection before deployment – ensuring they are not vulnerable to hacking or other potential weaknesses. Other techniques, such as “offensive jamming,” which includes using radio-frequency signals to interfere with wireless communication, are also being instituted by the government for national security purposes. While these technologies are still being instituted, such practices are expected to grow internationally as countries prepare for looming cybersecurity threats.

As the US government continues its efforts to secure its satellites and technology from cyberthreats, commercial companies will likely be expected to undergo the same testing for their assets and networks before entering the commercial space. The need for “white hat hacking,” which finds security vulnerabilities in software, hardware, or networks, will continue to grow and companies will likely need to ensure their assets have been properly vetted before gaining clearance for use.

Space Development Agency to award contracts for satellite maintenance.

The US Space Force’s Space Development Agency (SDA) will soon award contracts to companies focused on what officials call “active orbital maintenance” of satellites.

SDA will hire companies to share technical designs and their business case analysis to help leaders to determine whether there is a commercial market for these services, and how to work with them.

“I think there’s a business case there,” SDA Director Derek Tournear said August 1, 2024 at the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) Accelerating Space Commerce, Exploration, and New Discovery (ASCEND) conference in Las Vegas. “If I have to make sure that all my satellites at [an altitude of] 1,000 kilometers have redundancy on the propulsion systems and flight controls to ensure they deorbit within 25 years, that’s a cost to the satellites.”

Tournear chooses to acknowledge that a percentage of SDA satellites may not deorbit on time without service. “I’ll save that cost on the engineering of those satellites” and then “hire someone to go in and tug my satellites out,” he said.

International guidelines dictate satellites must deorbit within 25 years of the end of their mission, although these rules are currently being looked at by both the US government and their international counterparts.

“It’s important to note that the pending contracts are focused on assessing the feasibility of using commercial on orbit servicing to provide assisted disposal operations,” remarked Daniel Cook, a Partner in DLA Piper’s Government Contracts practice. “In other words, the scope of these initial contracts is essentially limited to applied research, analyses, and studies. It may be years before SDA is actually in a position to start awarding contracts for actual orbital maintenance services. Consistent with this, the pending contracts are being awarded pursuant to a Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) solicitation under Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) 35.016, which is used when federal agencies need to fulfil requirements for scientific studies and experimentation designed to advance state-of-the-art technologies. This contrasts with more traditional procurement mechanisms that used to acquire products and services. Moving forward, it will be interesting to see whether SDA continues to adopt nontraditional procurement mechanisms for this program – including whether the agency embraces the use of Other Transactions Agreements (OTAs) in lieu of standard FAR-based procurement contracts.”